Department of Psychiatry, Addiction and Behavioral Sciences Research Center, Shahid Sadoughi University of Medical Sciences, Yazd, Iran , yassiniard@yahoo.com
Abstract: (21 Views)
The decline in fertility rates has emerged as one of the most pressing demographic and social challenges of the 21st century, particularly in Iran and many developing countries. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Iran has fallen to approximately 1.7 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. (Pacific KEY INDICATORS, 2025; Worldometer, 2026) Meanwhile, national surveys indicate that the average ideal number of children for Iranian families remains around 2.5. This gap between "aspiration" and "reality" raises a fundamental question: Why are families unable to achieve their desired fertility goals?
The answer cannot be found solely in individual preferences. Economic conditions particularly economic uncertainty plays a decisive role in fertility decision-making. However, the mechanism is not simply through "absolute income" but through perceived uncertainty and social comparison. The Narrative Framework proposed by Vignoli and colleagues' offers a powerful theoretical lens: fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past" but are shaped by individuals' "narrative of the future" imagined futures embedded in social elements and interactions. When individuals perceive their future as unstable and unpredictable, they tend to avoid long-term commitments such as childbearing (Vignoli et al., 2020).
This theoretical proposition is empirically supported by evidence from other contexts. Research on social uncertainty in Hong Kong demonstrates that concerns about the social environment, economic costs, and constraints on freedom and self-development significantly contribute to declining fertility ideals (Chen et al., 2026). In Iran, a systematic review of 39 studies found that positive mental health is associated with increased willingness to marry and have children, while psychological problems such as anxiety, depression, and stress reduce the desire to form a family. Critically, social and economic support played a moderating role, and cultural context showed a mediating effect. This suggests that population policies overlooking mental health and social support components may be ineffective (Chen et al., 2026).
The answer cannot be found solely in individual preferences. Economic conditions particularly economic uncertainty plays a decisive role in fertility decision-making. However, the mechanism is not simply through "absolute income" but through perceived uncertainty and social comparison. The Narrative Framework proposed by Vignoli and colleagues' offers a powerful theoretical lens: fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past" but are shaped by individuals' "narrative of the future" imagined futures embedded in social elements and interactions. When individuals perceive their future as unstable and unpredictable, they tend to avoid long-term commitments such as childbearing (Vignoli et al., 2020).
This theoretical proposition is empirically supported by evidence from other contexts. Research on social uncertainty in Hong Kong demonstrates that concerns about the social environment, economic costs, and constraints on freedom and self-development significantly contribute to declining fertility ideals (Chen et al., 2026). In Iran, a systematic review of 39 studies found that positive mental health is associated with increased willingness to marry and have children, while psychological problems such as anxiety, depression, and stress reduce the desire to form a family. Critically, social and economic support played a moderating role, and cultural context showed a mediating effect. This suggests that population policies overlooking mental health and social support components may be ineffective (Chen et al., 2026).
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